What does climate have to do with cricket? More than you might suppose, according to the authors of a new study published today in the journal Weather.

In fact, depending on the climate trend — hot and dry vs. cool and wet — English cricketers might enjoy a bit of an edge over their Aussie rivals.

Researchers analysed the results of the Ashes cricket matches held in Australia from 1882-2007 and found a strong correlation between the results and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Nino years, the Australian team won 13 out of 17 series played (76 per cent), but only five out of the 13 played in La Nina years (38 per cent). England has only won one Ashes series in the last 100 years following an El Nino event — the “Bodyline” series in 1932-33.

ENSO is the largest mode of interannual climate variability in terms of globally averaged surface temperature, and has important consequences for weather around the globe.

There are two phases of ENSO:

During the positive phase, known as El Nino, the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (west of the Galapagos Islands) warms by about 1 degree Centigrade for a few months. For large areas of Australia, this means a period of lower-than-average rainfall and higher-than-usual land-surface temperature.

The La Nina phase (known as the negative phase) is a reverse of these conditions, with wetter conditions and a lower land-surface temperature.

Cricket pitch conditions can significantly affect the outcome of a match. The drier pitches, common for the duration of the El Nino period, are conducive to the faster style adopted by the Australian bowlers. In comparison, English bowlers tend to bowl with less speed and more swing, as the wetter and cooler climate of English summers favours this technique.

“This study shows it may be possible to tell by next winter whether England has a better chance of success in the following Ashes series than previous tours,” said Manoj Joshi, a researcher with the Walker Institute at The University of Reading. “The study could even influence whether the England touring team should include more fast bowlers or more ‘swing’ bowlers. However, it must be emphasised that this climatic effect is small compared to the human element, so whoever loses in 2010-11 can’t use El Nino as an excuse.”

“It is rare to find a piece of meteorological research directly related to professional sport… there should be more work like this,” said Philip Eden, vice president of the Royal Meteorological Socity. “As a long-standing cricket supporter and England fan, I believe that the England management should read this paper carefully and inwardly digest … it could help us win in Australia next time.”

According to the US Climate Prediction Centre, “Conditions are favourable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Nino conditions during June – August 2009.”

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