‘Rotten’ sea ice creates false impression of Arctic recovery
Published Monday, 30th November 2009
Over the last couple of years, thin, broken-up and “rotten” Arctic sea ice has duped satellites into identifying it as thick, multiyear ice, scientists have found.
Satellite data in 2008 and 2009 appeared to indicate that Arctic sea ice cover had started to grow again after reaching a record low, leading some to claim that global warming was reversing. However, University of Manitoba researcher David Barber found that wasn’t the case after he viewed the ice firsthand this September from an ice breaker travelling through the southern Beaufort Sea.
What the satellites had identified as thick, multiyear ice, it turned out, was in fact thin, “rotten” ice, Barber and his colleagues discovered.
Contrary to recent satellite data, the researchers also found that the loss of the remaining, healthy, multiyear sea ice is speeding up. Their findings have been accepted for publication in the American Geophysical Union’s peer reviewed journal, Geophysical Research Letters.
“These are very significant findings since the scientists and public all thought that sea ice was recovering since the minimum extent in 2007,” said Barber, a professor of environment and geography and Canada Research Chair in Arctic System Science.
During Barber’s ice breaker voyage, he and his colleagues discovered that multiyear sea ice was not as ubiquitous as it appeared in satellite remote sensing data. Much of the multiyear ice that did exist was so heavily decayed the ship easily broke through floes six to eight metres thick. Indeed, through most of the journey, the vessel sailed at an average speed of 24 kilometres per hour; its open water cruising speed is about 25 kilometres per hour.
“Ship navigation across the pole is imminent as the type of ice which resides there is no longer a barrier to ships in the late summer and fall,” Barber said.
What fooled the satellites? When observing sea ice, satellites shoot microwaves at the icescape and, among other things, record how those waves scatter. Each variety of ice was thought to have its own unique scattering characteristics which researchers could read to determine where certain species of ice reside.
However, Barber and his colleagues discovered that both multiyear ice and “rotten” ice have similar near-surface temperatures and similar near-surface salinities, as well as similar open water and new sea ice fractions at the surface. The satellite microwaves from both behaved similarly enough to create a case of mistaken identity.
“Our results are consistent with ice age estimates that show the amount of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere was the lowest on record in 2009 suggesting that multiyear sea ice continues to diminish rapidly in the Canada Basin even though 2009 aerial extent increased over that of 2007 and 2009,” the published study paper states.
“This has significant implications for assessment of the speed of global climate change impacts in the Arctic and for increased shipping and industrial development in the Arctic,” Barber added.
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If the satellite measured wrong this year, then it measured equally wrong last year and the year before, etc., so it doesn’t make much difference.
The only impending climate catastrophe is a plunge into the next Ice Age and no one knows when that will happen, only that it is very likely to happen eventually. We should all be very happy that we are in a warm period. It isn’t as warm as it was in Roman times or at the start of the Renaissance period but it isn’t too bad.
“Rotten” sea ice. Rotten is a techincal term, I presume? How about some context. The fact that AGW has been revealed by an insider as nothing more than a political scam to enrich governments and exert ever more control over our lives is Rotten. I get it. Thanks.
So David Barber was surprised to find rotten ice in the Beaufort Sea during September. Why would he think that was strange. Since September is the end of the melt season in the arctic I would EXPECT to find punky ice at that time. It is amazing what lengths people will go to to avoid stating the the minimum ice area has recovered nearly one million square kilometers since 2007. Please quit wasting my tax money on this global warming crap
David barber’s statements are a little disconcerting in view of the Polar 5 survey results.…. how does one transect (by Barber et al) tell us about the entire arctic sea…
Also what about the recent Polar-5 survey carried out by Alfred Wegener Institure and the University of Alberta…Ice transect…here are the details…flown using an EM unit as opposed to Prof Barber sticking his head out of the porthole..
“Another focal point of the campaign were large-scale measurements of ice thickness in the inner Arctic, which were conducted in close collaboration of the Alfred Wegener Institute together with the University of Alberta. An ice-thickness sensor, the so-called EM-Bird, was put into operation under a plane for the first time ever. To conduct the measurements, Polar 5 dragged the sensor which was attached to a steel cable of eighty metres length in a height of twenty metres over the ice cover. Multiple flights northwards from various stations showed an ice thickness between 2.5 (two years old ice in the vicinity of the North Pole) and 4 metres (perennial ice in Canadian offshore regions). All in all, the ice was somewhat thicker than during the last years in the same regions, which leads to the conclusion that Arctic ice cover recovers temporarily. The researchers found the thickest ice with a thickness of 15 metres along the northern coast of Ellesmere Island……